Masar oo ka gaabsanaya gelitaanka Yemen halka Sacuudigu taageero difaac doonayo

Madaxweyne el-Sisi wuxuu caddeeyay in ciidamada la diro ay difaacayaan Sacuudiga oo aanay weerar toos ah ku qaadayn Xouthiyiinta.

Masar ayaa si taxadar leh uga fiirsanaysa suurtagalnimada in ciidamo u dirto Yemen ama Sacuudiga, iyadoo dowladda Cairo ay sheegtay in taageerada milatari ay noqon doonto mid difaac ku salaysan oo aan ku lug yeelan weerarro toos ah oo ka dhan ah Xouthiyiinta.

Taageerada difaaca ee Masar iyo codka baarlamaanka

Madaxweyne Abdel Fattah el-Sisi ayaa Arbacadii caddeeyay in hawlgal kasta oo milatari uu diiradda saarayo difaaca Sacuudiga, isagoo sheegay in aanu ku lug lahayn weerar toos ah oo ka dhan ah Xouthiyiinta. Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibadda Badr Abdelatty ayaa Khamiistii ku baaqay xal siyaasadeed oo loo helo colaadda. Golaha Difaaca Qaranka ee Masar ayaa 18 Oktoobar sheegay in dalku diyaar u yahay inuu bixiyo taageero kasta oo lagama maarmaan ah oo suurtagal ah si Sacuudigu u difaaco ammaankiisa iyo xasilloonidiisa.

Codka ku saabsan dirista ciidamada Masar ayaa la qorsheeyay Isniinta, ka dib dib u dhac toddobaad ah oo loo ogolaaday xubnaha baarlamaanka ee ka gaabsan inay wax ka tixgeliyaan tallaabada. Sacuudiga ayaa la kulmay weerarro badan oo gantaallo iyo dayuuradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn, oo ay ka mid tahay weerar lagu qaaday garoonka caalamiga ah ee King Khalid ee Riyadh oo dilay 13 qof, oo uu ku jiro hal Masar ah.

Dhaqaalaha iyo khatarta Suez

El-Sisi wuxuu sheegay in Masar ay horey u lumisay $20bn oo ah dakhli suurtagal ah sannadihii u dambeeyay, sababo la xiriira xasillooni darro gobolka, oo ay ka mid yihiin weerarro hore oo lagu qaaday maraakiibta Badda Cas iyo qalalaasaha Badda Hormuz oo ka dhashay dagaalka Maraykanka iyo Israa'iil ee Iran. Masar ayaa gacanta ku haysa iridda woqooyi ee Suez Canal, waxayna si weyn ugu tiirsan tahay marinkaas ganacsiga.

Xusuusta taariikhda iyo mawqifka Yemen

Masar ayaa ciidamo kumanaan ah u dirtay Yemen 1962, iyadoo taageeraysay ciidamada jamhuuriga ee Waqooyiga Yemen ka hor rayidka, ka dib markii kacaanku afgembiyay Imaam Zaidi Mohammad al-Badr. Ciidamada Masar waxay ka baxeen Yemen ka dib guuldaradii dagaalka 1967 ee Israa'iil iyo khasaare culus oo ay ku gaareen Yemen. Ahmad Dahshan, tifaftiraha guud ee Xarunta Daraasaadka Carabta iyo Yurasiya, ayaa sheegay in ay jirto xusuus ah in Masar ay tagtay Yemen oo ay la kulantay ciidamo ay Sacuudigu taageeray, isla markaana ay ku dhinteen ciidamo Masar ah.

Mohammed al-Qadhi, falanqeeye siyaasadeed oo Yemeni ah oo madax banaan, ayaa sheegay in dowladda Yemen ay u baahan tahay taageero siyaasadeed iyo mid dhaqaale, isla markaana ay haysato dagaalyahanno ku filan laakiin ay ka maqan tahay hub iyo taageero dhaqaale, logistiko iyo farsamo. Wuxuu intaa ku daray in Yemeniyiintu ay weli si sharaf iyo ixtiraam leh u xusuustaan doorka Masar, isagoo sheegay in aanu aqbalayn door la mid ah oo ciidanka Masar uu maanta qaato.

Cairo says any deployment would defend Saudi territory, not strike Houthi rebels, as lawmakers prepare to vote Monday.

Egypt is weighing a limited, defensive military role in Saudi Arabia rather than direct involvement against Yemen's Houthi rebels, as its parliament prepares to vote Monday on any deployment abroad. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said Wednesday that any mission would focus on defending Saudi Arabia.

Cairo's stated position

El-Sisi emphasised on Wednesday that any military deployment would be focused on defending Saudi Arabia and would not involve direct aggression against Yemen's Houthi rebels. On Thursday, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for a political solution to the conflict. Egypt's National Defence Council said on October 18 the country was ready to provide "all necessary and possible support to Saudi Arabia to defend its safety and stability". A parliamentary vote is scheduled for Monday, after a weeklong delay to allow reticent lawmakers to deliberate.

The 1960s precedent

Egyptian forces arrived in Yemen in the thousands in 1962, backing the country's government in a civil war against rebels that threatened to overthrow it. Egypt supported republican forces in North Yemen against the country's royalists after a revolution overthrew Zaidi Imam Mohammad al-Badr. Egyptian forces withdrew after their defeat in the 1967 war against Israel and after suffering heavy losses in Yemen.

Ahmad Dahshan, editor-in-chief of the Center of Arabic Eurasian Studies, said: "There is the memory that [Egypt] went to Yemen and faced forces supported by Saudi Arabia, and Egyptian troops were killed there. Then [the mentality is] that Egypt will send troops to Yemen once again, where they would also be killed, but this time on behalf of Saudi Arabia."

Economic stakes and Yemeni needs

El-Sisi has said Egypt has already lost $20bn in potential revenues over the last few years due to regional instability, including previous attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. A strike on King Khalid international airport in Riyadh earlier this month killed 13 people, including one Egyptian. Turkiye, Pakistan, France and the United Kingdom have already deployed forces to Saudi Arabia in defensive operations or have indicated they are willing to do so.

Mohammed al-Qadhi, an independent Yemeni political and conflict analyst, said: "The Yemeni government just needs political support and economic support, and that has been the case since the war started. The Yemeni government has enough fighters … it lacks weapons and economic support, as well as logistical and technical support. It needs better coordination and command and control for the forces on the ground."