When the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025, Sylvie Andrews and her partner lost more than just their newly built home. They lost a decade’s worth of sacrifices and the community they had created.
While survivors were evacuating, others saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, they made bets on the wildfires—how they would grow, how long they would last, and how much they would destroy.
Prediction markets are essentially gambling websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather, and more. In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions related to the wildfires burning up Southern California.
People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, with some expressing moral objections to the practice.
Ethical Concerns and the Risk of Arson
Fire survivors and ethicists argue that betting on wildfires encourages and rewards callous thinking and dangerous behavior. One major concern is arson, with some suggesting that making a bet could give someone the perverse incentive to start or help a fire grow.
The use of prediction markets for wildfires raises questions about the balance between financial innovation and ethical responsibility in the face of natural disasters.
