Thursday April 24, 2025
Mogadishu (HOL) — Al Shabaab has retaken key areas across central Somalia in a coordinated offensive that has allowed the group to reestablish influence in Galgudud, Hiraan, and Mudug regions. The gains come as international security support for Somalia shifts, with Turkey expanding its military role amid a drawdown in U.S. engagement.
A map released by the Critical Threats Project on April 17 shows the militant group has reestablished control in key areas such as El Bur, El Dheere, Mahas, and Adan Yabaal across Galgudud, Mudug, and Hiraan regions. These gains allow Al Shabaab to reconnect support zones across central and southern Somalia and to threaten key roadways linking Mogadishu to the interior for the first time since 2022.
“Al Shabaab is highly unlikely to launch an offensive on Mogadishu to seize power in the short term,” the Critical Threats Project (CTP) assessed. “But its gains in central and southern Somalia will allow the group to increase economic and military pressure on Mogadishu and thus destabilize the SFG and undermine the SFG’s legitimacy.”
In response to the deteriorating security landscape, Turkey deployed at least 400 troops to the TURKSOM base in Mogadishu on April 21. The troops are part of a broader contingent of 2,500 soldiers approved for deployment by the Turkish parliament in July 2024.
Local media reported the Turkish forces will assist with implementing several agreements signed between Ankara and Mogadishu in 2024. These include building a rocket launch test site, securing Turkish investments, supporting oil exploration, and providing air support and military training for Somali troops.
The deployment followed meetings between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Ankara in late March. During those meetings, the leaders agreed to “increase bilateral defence and economic cooperation, particularly on counterterrorism and trade,” according to the Somali presidency.
Turkey, which established its first African military base in Mogadishu in 2017, also manages the Port of Mogadishu and has signed a maritime security agreement with Somalia to help rebuild its naval forces. Ankara is expected to receive a substantial share of revenue from Somalia’s offshore energy sector, which includes six billion cubic meters of proven natural gas and potential reserves of up to 30 billion barrels of oil.
“Turkey’s deployment aims to help ‘boost the city’s defenses’ and ‘protect key installations,’” said Rashid Abdi, research director at Sahan Global, a think tank focused on the Horn of Africa.
A separate report by Africa Intelligence stated that Turkey was considering the deployment as part of a broader “security guarantee” to the Somali government amid fears of diminished Western aid and mounting Al Shabaab pressure.
The United States, once Somalia’s lead counterterrorism partner, is reportedly reevaluating its support. The New York Times reported on April 10 that the Trump administration is internally divided. Some officials are pushing to reduce the U.S. presence in Somalia, while others argue for greater investment in counterterrorism.
In March, Somali officials said the United States had reduced funding for the elite Danab special operations forces, which have served as the core of Washington’s “partner-led, U.S.-enabled” approach. Former President Donald Trump had previously withdrawn U.S. troops from Somalia during his first term, relocating them to Djibouti and Kenya. Since then, U.S. forces have “commuted” into Somalia to continue training operations.
The United States has also indicated it will not support the proposed funding model for the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia at the upcoming U.N. Security Council vote in May. While analysts believe the mission will likely continue, prolonged negotiations may trigger funding shortfalls.
