Monday June 16, 2025
Somali scholars and analysts weigh in on the implications of the Iran-Israel conflict for the Horn of Africa, highlighting potential economic shocks, trade disruptions, and geopolitical realignments affecting Somalia. (BBC Somali / Composite Image)
Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia is feeling the shockwaves of the Iran-Israel conflict, as rising shipping costs, rerouted Red Sea traffic, and fears of militant escalation threaten the country’s fragile economy and aid lifelines. Though far from the frontlines, Somalia’s reliance on Gulf trade routes and imported goods leaves it acutely exposed to the fallout.
Somalia’s position along the Gulf of Aden and near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, key global shipping routes, places it at the crossroads of any regional fallout. Fears are growing that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 17 million barrels of oil transit daily, could spark global energy shortages and price hikes.
Shipping companies are already paying war-risk premiums of up to 1 percent of hull value on top of rising freight costs that have surged more than 20 percent since the current round of hostilities began. Lloyd’s List reports premiums as high as 2 percent for vessels tied to Israel or the U.S., translating into an added cost of US$600,000–800,000 for large oil tankers, a cost that insurers say is unlikely to fall soon.
“Somalia’s economy and the food on our tables depend heavily on imports from countries like China and Thailand, which come through Dubai,” Professor Mohamed Haji Ingiriis, a historian at King’s College London, told the BBC Somali Service. “If this conflict causes disruptions, prices for essential goods and fuel will rise sharply.”
Container lines’ shift away from Suez has already trimmed East African feeder capacity, while War-Risk surcharges are filtering down to Somali wholesalers.
Somalia’s domestic production remains limited due to decades of conflict, recurrent droughts, and flash floods. While the country exported roughly $1 billion worth of livestock—mostly to Saudi Arabia—in 2023, other markets like China have halted imports, and Somali ports remain reliant on inbound food and fuel shipments.
“Any disruption to imports could have devastating effects,” said Professor Ahmed Ismail Samatar, a U.S.-based Somali academic. “A sudden increase in food and fuel prices could cause economic paralysis or widespread unrest.”
Security analysts say the conflict could embolden non-state actors in Somalia. Iran’s ties to the Houthi movement in Yemen, less than 300 kilometres from Somalia’s coast, raise fears of arms transfers, particularly drones or guided missiles. The United Nations has documented maritime smuggling networks linking the Gulf of Oman to northern Somalia.
“If the world plunges into a third world war, Somalia could experience both positive and negative outcomes,” said Professor Abdiwahab Abdisamad, director of the Afro-Asia Studies and Strategy Institute. “The most immediate danger is that Somalia becomes a site where major powers confront one another. Given the current political fragmentation, Somali actors may align with opposing blocs—Western powers versus BRICS states.”
He added that armed groups such as al-Shabab or ISIS could attempt to form new partnerships. “These factions may take sides with Iran, showing public support in hopes of receiving backing. And if the Somali government aligns with the West—by, say, allowing a foreign military base—these groups could respond by escalating violence under the banner of defending Islam.”
Ports in Berbera, Bosaso, Mogadishu, and Kismayo could gain new relevance if shippers avoid traditional hubs in Dubai, Qatar, or Oman due to instability. However, political allegiances could complicate this opportunity.
“The only way Somalia could benefit,” said Abdisamad, “is if it remains neutral. That would attract commercial shipping in search of a safe corridor. We could see real investment in ports like Bosaso, Berbera, and Kismayo—especially if the war makes traditional transit points like Dubai or Oman unusable.”
Yet the humanitarian situation is already deteriorating. Citing funding gaps, the United Nations and its partners have reduced their assistance target from 4.6 million people to 1.3 million for 2025—a 70 percent cut. If staple imports stall or spike in price, analysts fear food insecurity could spread quickly and trigger urban unrest.
“Our food economy relies on outside sources,” said Samatar. “Even a short-term disruption in the supply chain could place millions at risk.”
Somali academics are also concerned about a potential influx of refugees if the Middle East conflict spreads. Previous crises in Yemen forced thousands across the Gulf into Somalia, a pattern many fear could repeat.
“As far as security is concerned, this war will bring serious problems,” said Samatar. “If it widens, we could see large numbers of refugees crossing into the Horn of Africa, just like what happened with Yemen.”
The Iran-Israel conflict, now entering its fourth day, has drawn international calls for restraint. But as the conflict escalates, Somalia finds itself caught in the economic and geopolitical crossfire of a distant war with increasingly local consequences.
- With files from the BBC Somali Service
