Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, has reiterated its commitment to securing diplomatic maritime access. However, its previous agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland in 2023, which granted Ethiopia a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence, triggered a geopolitical crisis in the Horn of Africa. That deal remains unimplemented following Somaliland’s leadership change.

Following Turkish-brokered negotiations, Ethiopia and Somalia reached a new agreement, which remains undisclosed. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Mogadishu last week for the first time since the deal was struck and met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. While specifics of their discussions have not been publicly shared, the two leaders agreed to collaborate on various strategic projects.

A key issue in these discussions is Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia. Ethiopian troops remain stationed in the country as part of the African Union peacekeeping mission and under a bilateral security arrangement. The number of Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia has not been officially disclosed.

Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar told Universal TV that the two nations are working to finalize an agreement by October.

“The agreement will outline the designated port Ethiopia will use, its location along the Indian Ocean, and all associated financial arrangements,” Omar said.

The country’s military chief said Ethiopia is close to securing a presence among Red Sea coastal states, heightening concerns over Addis Ababa’s continued efforts to gain access to the strategic waterway.

General Birhanu Jula, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, made the remarks just days after Ethiopia and Somalia reached an understanding aimed at de-escalating tensions stemming from the controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland on January 1, 2024.

The agreement, which Somaliland claims grants Ethiopia access to a corridor leading to the Red Sea, has been fiercely opposed by the Federal Government of Somalia, which condemned it as a direct violation of its sovereignty.

“Only a short time remains before Ethiopia becomes one of the nations bordering the Red Sea,” General Birhanu said. However, he did not specify how this would be accomplished.

His statement has renewed speculation that Ethiopia remains committed to implementing the agreement despite opposition from Mogadishu. Somali officials have repeatedly warned that any attempt to enforce the deal will be considered an act of aggression against the country’s territorial integrity.

The Ethiopian government has not clarified whether Birhanu’s remarks indicate a renewed push to advance the agreement with Somaliland. However, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has previously stated that Ethiopia’s economic future depends on securing direct access to a seaport, emphasizing that such efforts should be pursued through peaceful negotiations.

The MoU remains a flashpoint in Horn of Africa diplomacy, with Somalia insisting that Mogadishu must approve any deal involving Somaliland, as Somaliland is internationally recognized as part of Somalia.

Egypt, a vocal opponent of Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, has formed an alliance with Somalia and Eritrea to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki recently met with Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Dr. Badri Abdellati, to discuss Red Sea security and Ethiopia’s push for naval access. According to Ahram Online, Abdellati also delivered a message from President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to Afwerki.

Ethiopian officials argue that reliance on Djibouti for over 90% of their maritime trade is unsustainable. Ethiopia has struggled to secure alternative access, with its agreement with Somaliland stalled and its previous attempt to use Eritrea’s Assab Port failing. Neither Somalia nor Djibouti has publicly expressed willingness to grant Ethiopia a permanent naval base.

Ethiopia has struggled to secure a reliable maritime route. Its agreement with Somaliland remains stalled, and its earlier attempt to gain access through Eritrea’s Assab Port also failed. Neither Somalia nor Djibouti has publicly expressed willingness to grant Ethiopia a permanent naval base.

Despite Ethiopia’s diplomatic overtures to Somalia, its relationship with Eritrea has reportedly deteriorated. Analysts warn that a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea over maritime access could emerge if tensions continue to rise.

While Ethiopia insists it will not resort to force unless provoked, it has framed its quest for sea access as a matter of economic survival. The extent to which Somalia is willing to accommodate Ethiopia’s request for port access remains uncertain. Under the terms of their agreement, Ethiopia’s ability to secure Red Sea access without violating Somalia’s sovereignty will depend on cooperation between the Somali federal government and regional authorities—an outcome that remains unclear.

• With files from the BBC Somali Service

Correction Note:

This article has been updated to include an expanded section on General Birhanu Jula’s recent remarks regarding Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access. The updated version incorporates Jula’s statement that Ethiopia is nearing a presence among Red Sea coastal states, a claim that has intensified concerns over Addis Ababa’s long-standing maritime ambitions.