Wednesday February 26, 2025

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed welcomes Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at Bole International Airport during a previous state visit. (Photo: Handout)

Mogadishu (HOL) — Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is reportedly set to arrive in Somalia on Thursday for discussions with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, according to sources within Villa Somalia. The visit marks a critical juncture in the uneasy truce between the two Horn of Africa neighbours, whose relations have been tested by Addis Ababa’s contested maritime ambitions and longstanding military presence in Somalia.

At the heart of the talks is Ethiopia’s stalled agreement with Somaliland, which sought to grant Addis Ababa access to a 20-kilometre stretch of coastline near Berbera in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Somalia’s federal government immediately condemned the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, triggering a diplomatic standoff that led Mogadishu to recall its ambassador from Addis Ababa and threaten to expel Ethiopian troops from the African Union peacekeeping mission.

Abiy’s visit coincides with Ethiopia’s formalization of its military role in Somalia under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM). Both nations signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) in February, placing Ethiopian forces under Somali federal oversight. While Ethiopia has long maintained troops in Somalia as part of AU peacekeeping operations, Addis Ababa’s past unilateral military actions have strained relations.

With AUSSOM replacing the outgoing AU mission, Ethiopian forces are expected to remain in Somalia despite earlier threats from Mogadishu. The new framework seeks to ensure Ethiopian deployments align with Somalia’s security priorities, particularly in the fight against al-Shabaab militants.

Although the Ankara Declaration, brokered by Turkey in December, helped thaw relations, Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions remain a point of contention. Prime Minister Abiy has long argued that Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of over 120 million, needs reliable sea access for economic and strategic security. Somali officials, however, remain wary, concerned that Addis Ababa may still seek alternative routes to secure a coastal presence.

Somaliland’s new leadership under President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro has been more cautious about the deal than his predecessor, but Ethiopia has yet to abandon the agreement officially. Backed by regional allies, Mogadishu insists that any maritime access deal must be negotiated exclusively with the federal government and adhere to international law.

The Ethiopia-Somalia rapprochement carries significant geopolitical implications, mainly as Somalia strengthens ties with Egypt and Eritrea. During its fallout with Ethiopia, Somalia deepened its security cooperation with Cairo, signing defence pacts and receiving military aid. Ethiopia, in turn, has viewed Somalia’s growing alignment with Egypt with suspicion, given Cairo’s longstanding opposition to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project.

Despite the Ankara Declaration’s diplomatic breakthrough, Somalia appears to be hedging its bets. On the same day, Mohamud met Abiy in Addis Ababa in January, Somalia’s foreign minister was in Asmara for a trilateral meeting with Egyptian and Eritrean officials—an indication that Mogadishu is keeping its strategic options open should relations with Ethiopia deteriorate again.

Abiy’s visit is expected to focus on advancing the implementation of the Ankara Declaration, finalizing Ethiopia’s role in AUSSOM, and addressing uncertainties surrounding the Somaliland agreement. While the diplomatic thaw has eased tensions, unresolved questions over Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions and Somalia’s shifting regional alliances loom.

A joint statement is anticipated at the end of the visit, outlining the next steps for Ethiopia-Somalia diplomatic and security cooperation.