Xiriirka Soomaaliya: Ma jiraan khatar ku saabsan dagaal qeybsan oo ku dhaca Itoobiya?
Muddo todobaad ka badan ayay socotay dagaal u dhaxeeya ciidamada dalka Itoobiya iyo saddex ciidan oo ka tirsan mid ka mid ah ururada isku xiran ee ka dagaalamaya waqooyiga dalkaas, iyadoo dowladda federaalka ay sheegtay in dalka Eritrea, Soomaaliya iyo Masar ay taageerayaan kooxda TPLF.
Dagaalka gudaha iyo xiriirka dibadda
Ururka 'Alliance for Survival' ayaa isku xiray afar kooxood oo kale oo ka dagaalamaya dalka Itoobiya, iyadoo ciidamada dalka Eritrea ay sheegeen in dowladda Itoobiya ay isku dayayso inay ka saarto mas'uuliyadda dagaalka gudaha. Masarna waxay sheegtay inay ka baxday inay taageerto kooxda TPLF.
Susanne Stollreiter, hoggaamiyaha xafiiska Itoobiya ee hay'adda Friedrich Ebert Foundation, waxay sheegtay in dagaalku uu yahay mid gudaha ah, balse uu leeyahay qayb ka mid ah siyaasadda dibadda, iyadoo sheegtay in dagaalku uu noqon karo mid ka faa'iideysanaya deegaanka.
Xiriirka Soomaaliya iyo dagaalka gudaha
Dowladda Soomaaliya ayaa sheegtay inay ka baxday inay taageerto kooxda RSF, iyadoo dagaalka Soomaaliya uu socday muddo saddex sano ka badan, iyadoo ciidamada dalka Soomaaliya iyo kooxda RSF ay isku xiran yihiin.
Kooxda TPLF ayaa ku biiray dagaalka Soomaaliya, iyadoo ciidamada dalka Soomaaliya ay ka qayb qaateen dagaalka Soomaaliya, iyadoo dowladda Soomaaliya ay sheegtay inay ka baxday inay taageerto kooxda RSF.
Khataraha dibadda iyo xiriirka Soomaaliya
Dowladda Soomaaliya ayaa sheegtay inay ka baxday inay taageerto kooxda RSF, iyadoo dagaalka Soomaaliya uu socday muddo saddex sano ka badan, iyadoo ciidamada dalka Soomaaliya iyo kooxda RSF ay isku xiran yihiin.
Susanne Stollreiter waxay sheegtay in dagaalku uu noqon karo mid ka faa'iideysanaya deegaanka, iyadoo dowladda Soomaaliya ay sheegtay inay ka baxday inay taageerto kooxda RSF.
Three militias backed by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) have clashed with Ethiopia's national army in the north over the past week, prompting accusations from Addis Ababa that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are arming the rebels. Sudan and Cairo denied the charges, while experts warn the conflict could ignite a wider regional conflagration.
A Domestic Fight with Foreign Dimensions
The alliance, known as the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, unites seven armed groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, commander-in-chief of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting the TPLF-led militias. Sudan dismissed the allegation as baseless, while Cairo issued a flat denial of involvement.
Susanne Stollreiter of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation noted that while the conflict is primarily domestic, it carries a foreign policy dimension due to the many external actors involved. She warned that if the fighting escalates, it could lead to a regional conflagration given the various conflict dynamics in the Horn of Africa.
Mirrored Alliances and Historical Grievances
Egypt and Sudan have long harboured grievances against Ethiopia over the Blue Nile dam, which was built just before the border. Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal civil war since April 2023, and many Tigrayan fighters went into exile there, organising as Army 70 to fight alongside the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the RSF militia.
In May, the Sudanese government hosted high-ranking TPLF representatives and leaders of other Ethiopian opposition groups. Conversely, Reuters reported in February on a secret training camp for RSF fighters in Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region, with the United Arab Emirates providing instructors and funding — claims the UAE denied.
Regional Stability at Risk Amid Gulf Involvement
Eritrea, which fought alongside Abiy's forces in the Tigray War, has since fallen out with Ethiopia. ICG analyst Magnus Taylor suggested Eritrea may be supporting the TPLF to deter perceived Ethiopian aggression, particularly regarding access to the Red Sea port of Assab. Asmara has strengthened ties with Cairo this year, and the US has let sanctions against Eritrea expire.
The Horn of Africa borders the Gulf region, which has lost stability due to the Iran war and Houthi disruptions to the Bab al-Mandab Strait. While the UAE backs Addis Ababa and Saudi Arabia does not strongly support the TPLF, ICG's Taylor does not believe the situation is at risk of escalating into a proxy war between Gulf powers. However, experts caution that the absence of protective powers leaves the region vulnerable.
Ilaha iyo xuquuqda sawirka
Sawir: DW World Xigasho
