Wararka: Faahfaahin cusub oo ku saabsan baabbi'inta barwaaqo-sooranka ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe
Warbixin cusub oo ka soo baxday hay'adda Desert Locust ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Xaaladda barashada barwaaqo-sooranka
Model-yada dabiiciga ah ayaa muujinaya in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya. Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya. Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Xaaladda barashada barwaaqo-sooranka
Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya. Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya. Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Xaaladda barashada barwaaqo-sooranka
Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya. Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya. Warbixinta Desert Locust Bulletin 575 ayaa sheegaysa in model-yada dabiiciga ah ay muujinayaan in barashada barwaaqo-sooranka ay sii waddo xilligan, iyadoo qaybaha waaweyn ee Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe ay ku jiraan xilli barasho oo sarreeya.
Dynamical models project above-normal rainfall across most of northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East from October through December, consistent with previous strong El Niño episodes, according to the latest Desert Locust Bulletin.
Wet Pattern Persists Through Winter Despite Regional Shifts
The forecast indicates that drier-than-normal conditions are expected to emerge across North Africa by December, while the wet pattern is likely to persist elsewhere through winter. The predicted wet anomaly is somewhat less pronounced in East Africa, and the forecast has also turned drier for Yemen and Oman.
These adjustments reflect the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole struggling to become established, as a less positive IOD favors relatively drier conditions around the northwestern Indian Ocean during El Niño. Nevertheless, the pronounced El Niño forcing will remain the dominant wet influence across the region.
Breeding Conditions Favor Locust Populations in Key Areas
These rainfall patterns can support breeding in the northern Sahel through the late summer breeding season, raising concerns for regional food security and agricultural stability. Small-scale breeding may begin in October along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, signaling early activity in critical locust habitats.
The bulletin, titled Locust Watch: Seasonal precipitation predictions in the Desert Locust summer and winter breeding areas, was published on 20 September 2026 and follows earlier forecasts from August and July 2026, which tracked evolving climate signals.
Climate Signals Shape Desert Locust Risk Outlook
The interplay between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole continues to shape seasonal precipitation predictions, with the dominant wet influence from El Niño outweighing the weaker IOD signal. This dynamic underscores the complexity of forecasting locust breeding conditions across diverse ecosystems.
ReliefWeb has published the full report, available for download in PDF format, providing detailed analysis for policymakers and humanitarian agencies monitoring desert locust threats across Africa and the Middle East.
Ilaha iyo xuquuqda sawirka
Sawir: ReliefWeb Updates Xigasho
