Maraykanku wuxuu ka baxayaa dalka Iiraq, laakiin Iran ma baxayso: Sida ay uga dhacday khaldan weyn
Erin Ogunkeye ayaa soo dhaweynaya Bamo Nouri, war-sugayaale oo ah macallin ka tirsan Jaamacadda London, kaas oo sheegaya in dhamaadka ciidamada Maraykanka ee Iiraq uu yahay beddel weyn oo ku saabsan nidaamka amniga iyo siyaasadda dalkaas.
Dhaqdhaqaaqka Maraykanka iyo saameynta Iran
Bamo Nouri ayaa sheegay in Maraykanku uu ka baxayo Iiraq, laakiin Iran ay tahay mid aan ka bixin, taas oo ka dhigaysa in saameynta Tehran ay sii jirto dalka Iiraq. Saameyntan waxay ku jirtaa xisbiyada siyaasadda, ciidamada, ganacsiga iyo nidaamka maaliyadda dalka Iiraq.
Maraykanku wuxuu ahaa mid ka hortagay saameynta Iran, laakiin haddii uu ka baxo, waxaa laga yaabaa in ciidamada Iran-ka laga taageero ay helaan fursad weyn oo ay ku faa'iideystaan, taas oo ka dhigaysa in dalka Iiraq uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn.
Saameynta ku meel gaarka ah ee Iiraq
Iiraq waa dalka ugu weyn ee Maraykanku ka jiray, laakiin haddii uu ka baxo, waxaa laga yaabaa in dalkaas uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn, taas oo ka dhigaysa in dalkaas uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn.
Maraykanku wuxuu ahaa mid ka hortagay saameynta Iran, laakiin haddii uu ka baxo, waxaa laga yaabaa in ciidamada Iran-ka laga taageero ay helaan fursad weyn oo ay ku faa'iideystaan, taas oo ka dhigaysa in dalka Iiraq uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn.
Saameynta ku meel gaarka ah ee Iiraq
Iiraq waa dalka ugu weyn ee Maraykanku ka jiray, laakiin haddii uu ka baxo, waxaa laga yaabaa in dalkaas uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn, taas oo ka dhigaysa in dalkaas uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn.
Maraykanku wuxuu ahaa mid ka hortagay saameynta Iran, laakiin haddii uu ka baxo, waxaa laga yaabaa in ciidamada Iran-ka laga taageero ay helaan fursad weyn oo ay ku faa'iideystaan, taas oo ka dhigaysa in dalka Iiraq uu noqdo mid aan amni lahayn.
The departure of American forces from Iraq marks a profound shift in the region's security architecture. Analysts warn that without a US counterweight, Iran-backed groups may gain greater operational freedom, while Iraq's political and economic reform efforts face renewed obstacles.
A Shift in the Balance of Power
The United States is withdrawing its military presence from Iraq, a move that signals the end of two decades of American engagement in the country. This departure represents more than a tactical retreat; it is a strategic recalibration that could reshape the Middle East's geopolitical landscape for years to come.
Iran is not withdrawing from Iraq, and its influence is already deeply embedded within the nation's political parties, armed groups, economic networks and financial system. Tehran's power does not depend on a conventional military presence, meaning its reach persists regardless of American exit.
Risks for Iraq's Security and Sovereignty
Removing the American counterweight now could give Iran-backed groups greater room to operate, potentially destabilizing Iraq's fragile security environment. The Kurdish region, which has relied heavily on American military, intelligence and air-defence support, faces its own strategic uncertainty as it loses a critical ally.
Iraq's attempts at political and economic reform will become considerably more difficult without the stabilizing presence of US forces. The absence of American troops may embolden internal divisions and weaken the state's capacity to enforce sovereignty across contested territories.
The Question of True Sovereignty
The central question is not whether Iraq has formally regained sovereignty, but whether it possesses the political cohesion, security capacity and economic independence necessary to exercise that sovereignty. Analysts argue that formal independence without substantive capacity is an illusion that could lead to further instability.
Tehran's influence is already woven into the fabric of Iraqi society, from its political institutions to its financial networks. This deep-rooted presence means that the withdrawal of American forces may not diminish Iran's role but could instead amplify it, creating a new power dynamic that favors Tehran's interests.
Ilaha iyo xuquuqda sawirka
Sawir: France 24 English Xigasho
