Saturday February 15, 2025

Abdulqadir Mumin, leader of Islamic State-Somalia, appears in an al-Shabaab propaganda film recorded in July 2015. Later that year, he pledged allegiance to IS and formed its Somali affiliate, which has since expanded its operational and financial reach across the region. Photo Credit: Wikipedia Commons.

Mogadishu (HOL) — Intelligence agencies across multiple nations believe Abdul Qadir Mumin, the head of IS-Somalia, has risen to lead the Islamic State (IS) network worldwide, signalling a possible strategic shift for the militant group.

A new report from the United Nations Sanctions Monitoring Team cites “growing confidence” that Mumin, a Somali national who previously served as IS’s regional commander, has assumed the role of the organization’s global leader under the alias Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.

Born between 1950 and 1953 in Qandala, Puntland, Mumin spent years in Sweden and the UK before returning to Somalia. In the early 2000s, he built a reputation as a radical preacher in mosques in London and Leicester, reportedly influencing individuals such as Michael Adebolajo, one of the men responsible for the murder of British soldier Lee Rigby in 2013. He fled to Somalia in 2010, joining al-Shabaab before publicly burning his British passport and pledging allegiance to IS in 2015. Mumin’s IS-Somalia faction, initially a tiny splinter group, has since evolved into a formidable force.

The U.S. designated him a ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’ in 2016, and he has since been a key target for counterterrorism operations. In May 2024, he narrowly escaped a U.S. airstrike near Bosaso, which killed several IS operatives.

Mumin’s importance within IS has long been suspected. Previous intelligence reports suggested he had been elevated to head the terror group’s General Directorate of Provinces (GDP), effectively placing him in charge of IS’s sprawling network of African affiliates. U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) officials told VOA last year that reports of Mumin serving as IS’s global emir were credible.

If his global leadership status is confirmed, it will represent a fundamental departure from IS’s traditional command structure, which has historically been centred in Iraq and Syria.

The secrecy surrounding IS leadership complicates the verification of Mumin’s role. Since the deaths of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019 and his successors in 2022 and, more recently, Abu Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi in 2023, IS has only referred to its leader using the alias Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, a name meant to signal direct descent from the Prophet Muhammad. If Mumin is the figure behind this alias, it would mark a significant break from precedent, as he does not meet the Qurayshi lineage requirement that IS traditionally demands of its leaders. This fact has raised skepticism among some intelligence agencies, which question whether IS would abandon its historical criteria.

Mumin’s rise is due to military strategy and IS-Somalia’s growing role as a financial hub. Under his leadership, the faction has generated millions of dollars through extortion rackets, levying taxes on businesses and illicit trade, including contraband smuggling and kidnappings.

According to intelligence reports, IS-Somalia has funnelled money to affiliates in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, South Africa, Yemen, and Afghanistan. The group has also invested in drone technology for surveillance and suicide missions. However, clan-based tensions in Somalia have hindered its efforts to integrate foreign fighters, leading to increased defections.

Mumin’s influence is underscored by IS-Somalia’s ability to withstand internal and external pressure. Despite only controlling a limited stretch of territory in Puntland’s Golis Mountains, IS-Somalia’s reach extends well beyond Somalia’s borders. The group’s ability to facilitate international terror financing and recruitment has made it an essential node in IS’s global operations.

While speculation about Mumin’s leadership intensifies, IS continues to maintain a presence in Iraq and Syria. UN estimates suggest the group retains between 1,500 and 3,000 fighters in the region, carrying out ambushes and bombings against local security forces.

The collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 presented IS with new opportunities to reactivate sleeper cells in Syria. In Iraq, counterterrorism operations have inflicted severe losses on the group’s leadership, with a recent raid eliminating its deputy wali (governor) and 13 senior members. However, IS has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to replenish its leadership ranks despite targeted killings.

While IS-Somalia grows in influence, IS-Khorasan (IS-K) remains a primary concern for Western intelligence agencies. The UN report identifies IS-K as the “most serious threat” in Afghanistan, highlighting its ability to infiltrate the Taliban and recruit from marginalized communities, particularly poppy farmers and ethnic Tajiks.

Intelligence estimates place IS-K’s strength between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters, with smuggling routes through Turkey and Iran aiding recruitment. Counterterrorism officials have warned that IS-K is increasingly targeting Europe, with multiple foiled plots suggesting an expanded operational reach.

Analysts remain divided on whether Mumin’s rumoured leadership signals a long-term shift in IS’s strategy or a temporary adaptation. While IS’s ideological foundations remain rooted in the Middle East, its African affiliates now account for over 60% of the group’s violent activities.

If IS is decentralizing, moving its leadership and financial hubs beyond its historical base, it could mark the beginning of a new operational model for the group away from the war-ravaged Levant and toward Africa, where the group has been steadily expanding its footprint. Intelligence agencies continue to monitor developments, but whether Mumin is the undisputed caliph or a figurehead remains an open question. What is clear is that his survival, financial control, and strategic influence make him one of the most influential figures in the global jihadist network today.