Somalia’s Government and Al-Shabaab Entrenched in Prolonged Stalemate
The ongoing conflict between Somalia’s government and the militant group Al-Shabaab has settled into a prolonged and fragile stalemate, with neither side able to secure a decisive military advantage.
Previous Military Advances and Setbacks
In 2022-2023, Somali federal forces, supported by allied clan militias and international partners, seized large areas of central Somalia from Al-Shabaab. However, these gains proved unsustainable due to challenges in consolidating control, trained personnel shortages, weak coordination, and integration issues.
Al-Shabaab Counteroffensive and Resistance
In early 2025, Al-Shabaab launched a major counteroffensive and swiftly regained most of the territories previously lost. However, their push towards Lower Shabelle faced strong resistance from Somali forces, African Union troops, and international airpower.
Managed Conflict and Structural Weaknesses
By the second half of 2025, both sides consolidated positions rather than pursuing further offensives, resulting in a return to the familiar ‘managed conflict’ pattern. The report highlights structural weaknesses on both sides, with the Somali government lacking a reliable military force and Al-Shabaab facing limitations in sustaining its territorial gains.
