Madaxa IEA Fatih Birol oo ka digay kaydka gaasta Yurub oo hooseeya jiilaalkan

Birol wuxuu sheegay in Yurub aysan u adkaysan karin isku-buuqa kale ee sahayda gaasta, isla markaana ay la kulmi karto qiimo kordha haddii jiilaalku adkaado.

Fatih Birol, oo ah madaxa Hay'adda Caalamiga ah ee Tamarta (IEA), ayaa ka digay in Yurub ay jiilaalkan gasho iyadoo kaydka gaasteedu aad u hooseeyo, isla markaana aysan u adkaysan karin isku-buuqa kale ee sahayda. Birol wuxuu sheegay in qiimaha gaasta dareeraha ah ee LNG uu Yurub ku kordhi doono bilaha soo socda.

Kaydka gaasta oo ka hooseeya celceliska taariikhiga ah

Birol, oo Al Jazeera la hadlay intii uu ka qaybgalay shir caalami ah oo ka socday Berlin, ayaa sheegay in dalalka Yurub ay caadi ahaan kayd badan yeeshaan ka hor jiilaalka, laakiin kaydka ay hadda haystaan uu aad uga hooseeyo celceliska taariikhiga ah. Sida lataliyayaashu sheegeen, kaydka gaasta dabiiciga ah ee Midowga Yurub wuxuu buuxaa 72 boqolkiiba, halka caadi ahaan uu ahaa 90 boqolkiiba. Yaraantaas ayaa u dhiganta tamarta loo baahan yahay in lagu shideeyo 10 ilaa 12 milyan oo guri, sida ay lataliyayaashu sheegeen.

Birol wuxuu sheegay in gaasta Yurub ay la tartamayso tan dalalka Aasiya, kuwaas oo aad ugu tiirsan Bariga Dhexe. Wuxuu yiri: "Waxaan qabaa in haddii jiilaalku adkaado, aan arki karno qiimo kordha gaasta dabiiciga ah ee Yurub." Wuxuu intaa ku daray in tamartu noqotay mid siyaasad ahaan sii cakiran, taasoo kordhinaysa hubanti la'aanta.

Wasiirrada tamarta ee Midowga Yurub oo ka arrinsanaya isticmaalka oo la dhimo

Sida warbaahintu sheegtay, wasiirrada tamarta ee Midowga Yurub waxay ka arrinsanayaan in qoysaska iyo ganacsiyada laga codsado inay isticmaalka tamarta dhimaan. Birol wuxuu sheegay in weerarrada Yukrayn ee shidaalka Ruushka ay sidoo kale sabab u yihiin yaraanta shidaalka diesel ee soo socota, isla markaana saddex meelood meel ka mid ah keenista Ruushka ay joogsatay.

Birol wuxuu sheegay in hay'addiisu ay diiwaangelisay hoos u dhac $20 ah oo ku yimid qiimaha saliidda ee kor u kacayay isla markiiba ka dib markii dalalka G7 ay ku heshiiyeen inay sii daayaan 100 bilyan oo foosto oo saliid cayriin iyo diesel ah horraantii bishan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qiimaha ayaa mar kale kor u kacaya: gaasta wuxuu kor u kacay 140 boqolkiiba tan iyo Febraayo, halka Brent crude uu ka ganacsanayo wax ka badan $100.

Birol oo ka hadlay saameynta siyaasadda ee tamarta

Birol wuxuu sheegay in siyaasaddu ay si weyn u saameynayso tamarta, isla markaana uu arko saameyn aan hore loo arag. Wuxuu yiri: "Marnaba ma aanan arag in hadhka mugdiga ah ee siyaasadda uu sidaan oo kale ugu xoog badnaado qaybta tamarta." Wuxuu intaa ku daray: "Noloshu ma fududaan doonto Yurub sanadkan iyo sanadka soo socdaba."

Birol wuxuu sheegay in uu rajeynayo in labada marood ee Hormuz iyo Bab al-Mandeb si shuruud la'aan ah loo furo, haddii kale uu sheegay in aanay jirin meel badan oo kayd ah oo lagu ilaalin karo qiimaha. Wuxuu kaloo yiri: "Maalinta ugu fiican ee xabbad-joojintu waxay ahaan lahayd shalay."

Fatih Birol says the bloc cannot absorb further supply shocks and may face higher gas prices if the winter is harsh.

Europe is entering winter with gas reserves far below historical averages and cannot withstand further supply shocks, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, has warned. He said the European Union's storage is only 72 percent full, down from the usual 90 percent.

Reserves Well Below Usual Levels

Birol, speaking to Al Jazeera in Berlin on Wednesday, said European stocks are much lower than in past years. Analysts put EU storage at 72 percent, against a usual 90 percent, a shortfall they say equals the energy needed to power 10 to 12 million homes. EU energy ministers are weighing whether to ask households and businesses to ration consumption, according to news reports.

Competition and Price Pressure

Birol said Europe's gas is competing with that of Asian countries, which are even more dependent on the Middle East. "I think if we have a harsh winter, we may see higher prices of natural gas in Europe," he said. He added that the increasingly political nature of energy adds to the uncertainty, and that "Life will not be easy for Europe this year and also next year."

Diesel and the Wider Supply Picture

Birol said Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries were also behind a looming diesel scarcity, with about a third of Russian deliveries having stopped. Gas has surged by 140 percent since February, and Brent crude is trading well above $100. "I have never ever seen the dark and long shadow of geopolitics so dominant in the energy sector," he said.