Saadaasha roobka ee deegaanada taranka ayaxa lama-degaanka ah ee xilliyada qaboobaha iyo gu'ga
Xaaladaha El Niño oo aad u xooggan iyo IOD oo sii xoogaysanaya ayaa horseedaya roobab badan bariga Afrika, halka calaamadda gu'ga ee Waqooyi-galbeed Afrika ay u baahan tahay xaqiijin dheeraad ah.
Saadaasha cimilada ee deegaanada taranka ayaxa lama-degaanka ah ee xilliga qaboobaha iyo gu'ga, oo ka bilaabanaya Nofembar 2026 ilaa Abriil 2027, ayaa tilmaamaysa in roobab ka sarreeya caadiga ah la filayo bariga Afrika iyo qaybo ka mid ah xeebaha Badda Cas, iyadoo qaybo kale ay sii ahaan doonaan qalalan.
Roobabka bilowga xilliga iyo saameynta El Niño
Xaaladaha El Niño oo aad u xooggan iyo Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) oo sii xoogaysanaya ayaa taageeraya in roobab badan ay ka dhacaan bariga Afrika, in kasta oo calaamadda gu'ga ee Waqooyi-galbeed Afrika ay u baahan tahay xaqiijin dheeraad ah. Inta badan gobollada waxaa la filayaa qalalan ilaa horraanta Nofembar, marka laga reebo roobab yar oo ka dhaca waqooyi-galbeed Afrika, koonfurta Aljeeriya, Liibiya iyo xeebaha Gacanka Cadan iyo qaybo ka mid ah xeebaha Badda Cas.
Laga bilaabo badhtamaha Nofembar, roobab ka sarreeya caadiga ah ayaa la filayaa qaybo ka mid ah xeebaha Badda Cas iyo Geeska Afrika.
Xilliga qaboobaha iyo taranka yar-yar
Xilliga qaboobaha, roobab ayaa la filayaa xeebaha Badda Cas iyo Gacanka Cadan, iyadoo roobku sii badnaan doono Febraayo, halka waqooyiga Badda Cas uu qalalan doono si ka badan caadiga Nofembar–Desembar.
Sababta oo ah roobabkaas, taranka yar-yar ee xilliga qaboobaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu ka bilaabmo koonfurta xeebaha Badda Cas iyo Gacanka Cadan.
Saadaasha gu'ga iyo deegaanada taranka
Gu'ga, roobab ka badan caadiga ah ayaa la filayaa Mauritania, Marooko, Aljeeriya, Geeska Afrika, koonfurta Carabta, Iran iyo Pakistan, halkaas oo taranka gu'ga laga yaabo inuu sii xoogaysto.
Forecasters expect above-normal rainfall from mid-November along parts of the Red Sea coasts and in the Horn of Africa, with small-scale winter breeding possible.
Extremely strong El Niño conditions and a more positive Indian Ocean Dipole favour wetter conditions in eastern Africa, according to a seasonal outlook for the Desert Locust summer and winter breeding areas covering November 2026 to April 2027. Dry conditions are expected across most regions until early November.
Dry start, then wetter conditions from mid-November
The outlook states that dry conditions are expected across most regions until early November. Exceptions include some rainfall in northwestern Africa, southern Algeria, Libya, and along the Gulf of Aden and parts of the Red Sea coasts.
Above-normal rainfall is expected from mid-November along parts of the Red Sea coasts and in the Horn of Africa. The outlook notes that the spring signal in Northwest Africa requires further confirmation.
Winter breeding possible along southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Winter rainfall is expected along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, becoming wetter in February. The northern Red Sea, by contrast, is expected to be drier-than-normal in November–December.
As a result, small-scale winter breeding may start along the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, according to the outlook.
Spring may favour breeding across a wide area
Spring may be wetter than normal in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, the Horn of Africa, southern Arabia, Iran and Pakistan. In those areas, spring breeding could be favoured, the outlook states.
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