Itoobiya: Maxay u baahan tahay inay soo bandhigto xukuumadda Abiy si loo gaaro heshiis?
Dagaalka koonfurta Itoobiya ayaa dib u bilowday kadib saddex sano oo nabad ah, iyadoo ciidamada dowladda iyo kuwa isku dayaya inay dhaawiciisa ku dhacaan ay isku dayayaan inay dowladda Abiy Ahmed ku dhaawiciisa ku dhacaan.
Sababta heshiiska Pretoria uu burburay
Heshiiska Pretoria ee 2022-kii ayaa dhamaadka dagaalka Tigray ku dhawaaqay, laakiin wuxuu ka dhacay in saddex dhinac oo muhiim ah la aqoonsan waayay. Eritrea, Fano, iyo xubnaha adag ee TPLF ayaa la aqoonsan waayay.
Dowladda Itoobiya waxay ku guuleysatay inay Fano ka qaaddo hubka, taas oo keentay inay dagaalka dib u bilowdo. Negash Mohammed ayaa yiri: 'Dowladdu waxay leedahay khaladaadkeeda, waxayna ku guuleysatay inay dhibaatooyinka ka dhigto kuwo badan.'
Isku-dhafka ciidamada iyo xaaladda dadka rayidka ah
Ciidamada dowladda iyo kuwa isku dayaya inay dhaawiciisa ku dhacaan ayaa isku dayaya inay dowladda Abiy Ahmed ku dhaawiciisa ku dhacaan. Eritrea waxay ku guuleysatay inay dowladda Itoobiya ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dh
Dadka rayidka ah ayaa ku guuleystay inay dowladda Itoobiya ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto
Xaaladda dib-u-dhiska iyo horumarka
Dowladda Itoobiya waxay ku guuleysatay inay dowladda Itoobiya ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dh
Dadka rayidka ah ayaa ku guuleystay inay dowladda Itoobiya ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto mid ka dhigto
Four years after the Pretoria Peace Agreement halted the Tigray war, fighting has reignited across northern Ethiopia. A fragile coalition of former enemies now targets Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, while international mediation faces steep obstacles.
Why the 2022 Peace Deal Failed
The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in 2022, ended a two-year conflict that cost hundreds of thousands of lives. However, the deal collapsed because three key actors were largely neglected at the negotiation table.
Eritrea's role in the war was not addressed, Amhara militias known as Fano felt excluded, and hardliners within the TPLF viewed the peace as a military defeat. Tensions escalated further when Addis Ababa moved to forcibly disarm the Fano instead of addressing their grievances.
A Coalition of Former Enemies
The current alliance against the federal government includes the Oromo Liberation Army, a faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, smaller groups from Benishangul-Gumuz, and ethnic militant factions from Afar. Eritrea, while not an official member, is believed to be providing support to the rebels.
Patricia Rodrigues of Control Risks described the strategic coordination among these groups as 'quite significant' and 'definitely alarming for the federal government.' However, she warned that cracks may emerge because the coalition members have very different interests and represent different ethnic constituencies.
Limited Prospects for Mediation
The failure of sustained international engagement after 2022 is a key reason for the current conflict. While the Pretoria agreement saw early signs of implementation, international attention shifted to other global crises, leaving both sides free to rearm quietly.
Negotiations are unlikely to succeed until at least one side understands that violence will not achieve their goals. Rodrigues stated she cannot be optimistic about mediation being the solution, adding that 'intense, but geographically contained' fighting will continue for the foreseeable future.
Ilaha iyo xuquuqda sawirka
Sawir: DW World Xigasho
